US DOLLAR PRICE, CHART, AND ANALYSIS
The monthly US Jobs Report (NFP) will be released at 12:30 GMT today and will give the market the latest look at labor market conditions across America. This closely-watched report still has the potential to move a range of markets although its influence is beginning to wane after the Fed’s greater clarity on the path of interest rates in the months ahead. Financial markets have already priced in a further 200 basis points of rate hikes in 2022 with a 50 bp hike now expected at the May meeting. The path of rate hikes, and the increased expectation that the Fed is looking to front-load these increases, can be seen in the sharp rise in UST 2-year yields over the last six months.
Today’s NFP report is expected to show 490k new jobs created, unemployment at 3.7%, down from 3.8% in February, and a rise in monthly average hourly earnings to 0.4% from 0% in the prior month.
The US dollar basket (DXY) is currently boxed in between 97.70 and 99.40 and this is likely to remain the case in the short-term at least. A re-test of this support would still leave the longer-term bullish trend in place and would also offer a better risk-reward entry point for traders looking to open a new long position. The current sideways pattern may persist in the short-term, but looking further ahead the bullish trend remains dominant with fresh US dollar highs likely in the weeks and months ahead.